Is Turkey becoming the leader of the Islamic world? Having long separated itself from its religious roots under its current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has sought to re-establish its standing amongst the world’s Muslim majority states and shape broader opinion on critical issues. Most recently, Erdogan has called for an Islamic alliance against Israel.
But while the Turkish leader certainly sees his country as an influential actor that can Can it really become the dominant power? In international relations, we often talk of states as leaders, whether regionally, globally or even within specific organizations. But just what makes a country a leader? While it can certainly be about exerting military or economic power, It goes well beyond this. It’s also based on political, diplomatic or cultural influence, so-called soft power.
Overall, being a leader means being able to shape development by setting policies and positions on critical issues, building coalitions and shaping institutions. One of the most interesting questions in international affairs is who leads the Islamic world, representing a significant part of the global population.
It’s a difficult question to answer. However, in recent years, Turkey has tried to establish itself as a dominant force within the group. But can it ever hope to become the leading power? With an estimated 1.8 billion adherents, Islam is the world’s second largest religion, although projections suggest it’ll pass Christianity by the end of the century.
the Organization of Islamic Cooperation The body representing Muslim-majority countries has 57 full members and a further five observers. Spanning all five continents and stretching from Indonesia in the east to Guyana in the west, and from Kazakhstan in the north to Mozambique in the south, its members represent both around 25% of the world’s population and a quarter of the world’s landmass. On top of that, it represents around 10% of the global economy.
However, While Islam is traditionally based on the idea of a single religious community, the Ummah, these countries have often been deeply divided politically, culturally, ideologically and economically. Turkey and the Turkish people have a long history at the heart of the Muslim faith. Although Islam initially emerged in Arabia in the 7th century, it rapidly expanded across the Middle East and North Africa before spreading further afield.
including into Central Asia where Turkic tribes converted to the faith. In the 11th century, one of these tribes, the Seljuks, began pushing into the Middle East. And in 1055, they conquered Baghdad, the cultural and political centre of the Caliphate, as the territory then under Muslim control was known. From there, they continued their expansion. In 1071, they defeated the Byzantine Empire, paving the way for other Muslim Turkic tribes. to settle in the Anatolian Peninsula. And it was 300 years later that one of these groups, the Ottomans, began a rapid campaign of conquest that saw them sweep away the last remnants of the Byzantine Empire and conquer much of Southeast Europe and the Middle East.
Having become the most powerful force in the Islamic world, the Ottoman Sultan also took the title of Caliph, signifying his leadership of the faith. While the Ottoman Empire would continue to expand, even seizing parts of the Arabian Peninsula, by the late 19th century it was declining.
The final blow came after the First World War. Having sided with Germany and Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire was defeated. And as its remaining territories in the Middle East were divided between Britain and France, preparations were also made to carve up what remained of its Anatolian heartland. It was at this point that Turkish nationalist forces fought back under the leadership of General Mustafa Kemal.
As the Republic of Turkey replaced the Ottoman Empire, the last sultan was forced to abdicate and the Caliphate was abolished. Over the following years, Kemal, better known as Ataturk, rid the new state of its old ties to Islam. As well as abolishing the Ottoman Arab script and replacing it with Latin characters, he introduced a strict separation. between religion and state. At the same time, Turkey broke off its ties to the Middle East and the broader Islamic world. Its priority was its Western and European orientation. Having joined NATO in 1952, ten years later it signed an association agreement with the European Economic Community, the forerunner of today’s European Union.
Meanwhile, in a move that angered many Muslim states, Turkey became the first Muslim-majority recognise Israel, eventually forging a close defence and security alliance with the country. However, everything began to change at the turn of the millennium. Although Turkey had been a secular republic for almost 70 years, it was mired in economic and political turmoil. It was against this backdrop that a new political force emerged, the Justice and Development Party.
This was led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. former mayor of Istanbul who’d been jailed for encouraging religious unrest. Although the powerful military, which saw itself as a guardian of Turkey’s secularism, had previously clamped down on religious influence in politics, it now decided to step back and let events take their course. In November 2002, the AKP won a resounding victory in national elections. And while Erdogan was initially barred from entering politics, this was lifted. next year and he became Prime Minister.
Domestically, he began to roll back many of the restrictions that had been placed on religion in public life, openly highlighting his own religious faith. ended the long-standing ban on headscarves in government offices.
Likewise, he reduced the power of the military and stopped the annual tradition of expelling officers who were seen as too religious. At the same time, he steadily reoriented the country’s foreign policy. While maintaining close ties to NATO and the quest to join the European Union, Turkey now increased its profile across the Middle East and the broader Muslim world. As well as massively expanding its diplomatic presence in many countries, in recent years, the Directorate of Religious Affairs has increased its overseas aid considerably.
This has seen it build mosques and religious schools, as well as promoting Islamic cultural programs around the world. It also distributes humanitarian assistance. Turkey has also become more active as a military and security actor. As well as playing a role in trying to re-establish order in Somalia, it’s intervened in Libya, Syria and Iraq. On top of all this, Turkey has also become increasingly outspoken on issues that played well amongst many ordinary Muslims.
For example, when the Arab Spring broke out in 2010, Erdogan stood firmly behind efforts to overthrow the authoritarian secular regimes in Egypt and Syria, publicly supporting Islamist opposition groups in both countries. A move that fundamentally undermined Ankara’s relationship with Cairo and Damascus. But perhaps most significantly, the Turkish president became a particularly vocal supporter of the Palestinian cause. In 2010, Turkey’s long-standing relationship with Israel finally collapsed after a Turkish aid ship to Gaza was raided by Israeli forces, leading to several deaths.
All this has led many to see Turkey as a leader within the Muslim world. But is this really the case? Certainly, the headline figures suggest that it is plausible. For a start, Turkey is the world’s sixth most populous Muslim majority states, following Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Egypt and Iran. Likewise, with an annual gross domestic product of $1 trillion, it’s the third largest economically after Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.
Then there’s the military spending. which sees it come second only to Saudi Arabia. On top of this, besides its steadily growing diplomatic, military and aid presence across the Muslim world, Turkey’s soft power influence is also increasing. Turkish Airlines has rapidly grown in recent years and Istanbul has just become the world’s most connected airport, serving over 300 destinations. In addition, Turkish television programmes commander following across many Muslim countries. All the while, alongside its active tourist market, which now amounts to around 45 million visitors every year, Turkish history and culture has been strongly promoted internationally.
Taken with Erdogan’s outspoken positions on many key issues, all this suggests that Turkey’s standing is growing dramatically, especially in the Muslim world. But there are also good reasons why this won’t translate into formal political leadership. For a start, Turkey remains deeply distrusted in large parts of the Arab world. Leaving aside the bitter experience of 300 years of Turkish Ottoman colonial rule in the Middle East, many Arab states continue to regard Turkey and the Turkish leader with deep suspicion.
Turkey has also had deeper bilateral tensions with many states, as well as Egypt and Syria. This includes Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. And even though Turkey is now actively trying to rebuild its broken ties to Damascus and Cairo, and has just attended a meeting of the Arab League for the first time in 13 years, many of these countries won’t forget its past behaviour or the way that it can seemingly change position and turn on allies with ease.
Secondly, many are suspicious of how Turkey tries to keep its feet in so many different camps. At the same time as it courts Muslim states, it’s in the military alliance with the West through NATO. And yet, it’s now also talking about joining the BRICS, which is trying to undermine Western dominance. All the while, it’s trying to lead the Turkic states, but at the same time cosying up to Russia, which still vies for supremacy in Central Asia. While supporters argue that these multilateral relationships strengthen Turkey’s global standing.
Summary: Critics see this as proof of Erdogan’s inability to be loyal to any group. Hardly the qualities one expects of a leader. Finally, Turkey’s up against strong competition. In the Arab world, aside from Saudi Arabia, which remains an incredibly influential state as the birthplace of Islam and home to the religion’s holiest sites, Egypt also remains a demographic and cultural powerhouse. Elsewhere, Indonesia is the world’s most populous Muslim state, followed by Pakistan. And the Gulf states, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, have also emerged as hugely influential actors supported by considerable oil wealth. And for many Shia Muslims, Iran remains the pre-eminent actor.
For all these reasons, while Turkey has undoubtedly re-established its standing in the Muslim world under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and notwithstanding its strident position on Israel, it seems unlikely to become the overarching leader. There are just too many opposed to it and too many alternative challenges. Instead, it’s better to think of Turkey as one amongst many influential countries within this large and highly diverse group of states.
