However, as Iran retaliates, there are growing fears that the conflict may be about to become far wider and far more dangerous. So, what lies behind the present conflict? And could it finally spark a full-scale war between Israel and Iran?
Usually, this is because they fear the devastating consequences of a full-scale confrontation. In such cases, they may instead resort to using proxies. One or both sides use a third party, such as another country or an insurgent group, attack the other. However, while these proxy conflicts can continue indefinitely, they sometimes escalate into direct wars.
This could be through miscalculation. For example, if a proxy carries out an attack, that’s simply too serious to be ignored. Alternatively, one of the sides may decide that the time has come to face its opponent directly. One of the best examples of a proxy conflict appears to be teetering on the edge of a full-scale war is the long-standing confrontation between Israel and Iran. For many decades, Iran has armed, financed and trained the Lebanese Shia militia, Hezbollah, as well as regular skirmishes along the border, which even led to a major conflict in 2006.
This has seen the group often fire missiles directly into Israel. But as tensions again escalate between Israel and Hezbollah, could this be the moment that the proxy war ends and a direct conflict between Israel and Iran begins? Lying immediately to Israel’s north, from the start, Lebanon has been a central actor, both willingly and unwillingly, in the conflicts that have beset the Middle East over the past 80 years.
For example, it was one of the five Arab states that joined forces with to unsuccessfully attack the new state of Israel when it proclaimed independence in May 1948. This failure would have a profound consequence for the country. As many Palestinians fled to Lebanon, they upset the delicate balance between the three crucial Lebanese ethno-religious communities, the Christian Maronites, the Sunni Muslims and the Shia Muslims.
This situation became even more unstable. When tens of thousands more Palestinians arrived at the start of the 1970s, after nearby Jordan expelled the Palestinian Liberation Organization, the leading Palestinian armed group. With Palestinians now representing up to 15% of the Lebanese population, they allied with other groups to end the dominance of the Maronite Christians.
Secondly, as the civil war raged in Lebanon, Palestinian forces in the country seized the opportunity to step up their attacks on neighbouring Israel. All this would come together in June 1982, when Israeli forces launched a full-scale invasion of Lebanon. Seeing an opportunity to take on Israel, Iran now sent over a thousand members of its elite Revolutionary Guards to Lebanon. There, they played a central role in arming and training a new militia. formed from within the Lebanese Shia community, Hezbollah, the army of God.
All this eventually came to a head in July 2006. Following a Hezbollah raid into Israel that saw two Israeli soldiers kidnapped, Israel retaliated by sending its forces. back into Lebanon. However, just over a month later, the fighting came to an end when the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for an Israeli withdrawal in return for an enhanced UN peacekeeping mission in the south of Lebanon and the disbandment of Hezbollah. But while this didn’t in fact happen, tensions nevertheless appeared to ease in the years that followed.
While confrontations continued and the group remained fundamentally opposed to Israel, were no further eruptions of full-scale fighting. Instead, Hezbollah turned its attentions elsewhere. In addition to becoming involved in the Syrian civil war, where the Assad regime was being propped up by the Iranian government, the group also consolidated its power in Lebanon. Under its long-standing leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, it steadily became a more powerful political actor.
However, throughout 2024 there’s been a sense that Israel and Hezbollah have nevertheless been edging ever closer to an all-out confrontation. While Hezbollah continued to launch sporadic missile strikes on northern Israel, forcing tens of thousands of Israelis to be evacuated, Israel also stepped up its operations. This all came to a head in September. when Israel began a series of actions designed to undermine Hezbollah’s operational effectiveness.
The first of these was the simultaneous detonation of thousands of pages that had been covertly fitted with explosives. An attack that left many thousands of Hezbollah fighters and activists gravely injured. This was then followed up by another round of explosions the next day using walkie-talkies that had also been fitted. with explosives. In addition to the physical injuries these attacks caused, they also forced Hezbollah to scale back its communications. However, as significant as these steps were, the critical moment came on 28 September when Israel assassinated Nasrallah.
Launching an attack against several apartment blocks, Israeli aircraft used bunker-busting several hundred others dead and wounded. Indeed, it was telling that Lebanese troops withdrew from the border areas just hours before the start of the attack. While many Lebanese passionately dislike Israel, they also intensely oppose Hezbollah. which has become steadily more powerful in the country over the past decade.
while the Lebanese government has strongly condemned the invasion, many ordinary Lebanese from across the religious divides will be hoping that Israel will be able to undermine Hezbollah, even if they don’t perhaps say so openly. For all these reasons, it’s unlikely that Lebanese forces the fight.
Israel strikes on Beirut. The Lebanese capital will make it increasingly difficult for Lebanon, or at least parts of Lebanese society, to take a back seat. As the war progresses, this could lead to more significant societal fragmentation, which obviously carries many dangers in a country with such a strong history of a brutal civil war.
But the second question is whether Israel can in fact deal a decisive blow to Hezbollah. On the one hand, Israel seems to be in a very strong position. With military operations in Gaza now seemingly winding down, Israel may well have held off the attack until it knew that it could weaken Hezbollah and then be able to commit enough forces to a second front against the group, which is a far more challenging opponent than Hamas over in Gaza.
the conflict, reports suggest heavy fighting now occurring across southern Lebanon. Of course, it remains to be seen precisely how this evolves. But many would argue that Israel is acting while it’s in the strongest possible position. Its pager attacks on thousands of Hezbollah fighters and the assassination of Nasrallah will have dealt a massive military, political and psychological blow to the organization.
However, balanced against this, there’s little doubt that Hezbollah remains a significant fighting force. While it may be reeling under recent attacks, it remains a large and well-armed militia. It’s also extremely well dug in. As with Hamas in Gaza, it’s established a network of tunnels throughout southern Lebanon that help it to stage its attacks. More generally, and as many observers have pointed out, Israel’s history in Lebanon has been far from promising. Having invaded on several occasions, it’s eventually pulled out only to have to go back in.
Summary: once the security situation deteriorates again. And this brings us to the real question. Ultimately, it isn’t the short-term results of the Israeli invasion that really matter. It’s what happens in the medium to long term. Even if Israel succeeds in its primary goal and destroys Hezbollah’s immediate ability to attack, unless it’s willing to occupy the land indefinitely, the threat will almost certainly return. As the past has shown, As soon as the IDF pulls out, Hezbollah will begin the process of rebuilding.
This may not happen quickly, but it will happen unless, of course, Israel can defeat the group more widely. But this goes far beyond Lebanon. And this is where we get to the real point. What we’re seeing now with Hezbollah in Lebanon is not the central issue. It’s just one part of it. The real confrontation is between Israel and Iran.
For as long as the countries remain fundamentally at odds and Iran sponsors groups like Hamas and Hezbollah to act as proxies, then the confrontation will continue. Until now, the two countries have waged what is effectively a secret war. But this is now changing. The conflict between the two is becoming ever more open. Aside from the conflicts with Hamas and Gaza and Hezbollah and Lebanon, the confrontations between Israel and Iran becoming increasingly direct.
The growing number of intelligence and military operations, they’re both staging against each other, mark a steadily more dangerous march towards a direct conflict between these two countries. This was underscored by Israel’s willingness to assassinate the leader of Hamas, who was living in Tehran. It’s the start of the first open Israel-Iran war. A long-standing proxy conflict now appears poised to become a devastating full-scale confrontation. But, of course, There’s a long history to the Iran-Israel relationship.
